Pursuing efforts?

Late last year at the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to hold the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On 5 October 2016, the threshold for entry into force of the Paris Agreement was achieved. The Paris Agreement will formally enter into force on 4 November 2016.

Meanwhile, temperatures have been more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for eleven out of the past twelve months. Only for the month January 2016 was the anomaly (slightly) under the 1.5°C guardrail.

The monthly warming in above image was calculated by using the NASA Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Change data from 1880 through to September 2016, while adding 0.28°C to cater for the rise from 1900 to 1951-1980, and additionally adding 0.3°C to cater for the rise from pre-industrial to 1900.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The 0.28°C to cater for the rise from 1900 to 1951-1980 is illustrated by above graph, which has a polynomial trend added to the NASA Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Change data from 1880 through to September 2016.

As said, the top image has a further 0.3°C added to cater for the rise from pre-industrial to 1900, as discussed in an earlier post. There is some debate as to whether this 0.3°C adjustment was too high, but even when applying a mere 0.1°C adjustment instead, warming in February 2016 would still have been well over the guardrail of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as set at the Paris Agreement.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

- Climate Plan
http://ift.tt/1XoCgDS

- How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?
http://ift.tt/2afrTyR

- NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)
http://ift.tt/1pdQ5Dk

- 81 Parties have ratified of 197 Parties to the Convention
http://ift.tt/1pjKpM7

- Paris Agreement
http://ift.tt/2a6iole

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