This Is Russia's Exit Strategy In Syria

The Russian deployment in Syria is one of the factors that have led the US to see the Russian military as ‘the greatest array of threats to US interests’. Photograph: Handout/Reuters

Stratfor: Russia Looks for an Exit in Syria - Analysis

Forecast

* Despite the shared cause of supporting Damascus, Moscow and Tehran will continue to differ in their commitment to the conflict.
* As Russia concocts an exit strategy, its relations with Iran will steadily sour.
* The divergences between the countries will exacerbate the differences among Syria's loyalist forces.

Analysis

With their capture of Aleppo in late December, forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al Assad secured their biggest victory in the country's nearly six-year civil war. It is now clear that al Assad has weathered the critical threat to his administration's rule over key parts of the country. Military, diplomatic and financial support from Iran and Russia has played a tremendous role in the loyalist victory. But despite their shared cause in Syria and the considerable resources that each government has invested in the war, Moscow and Tehran do not see eye to eye on several issues related to the conflict. The two countries differ most notably in their commitment to the loyalist cause. Though Russia has already demonstrated its pledge to sustain and support loyalist forces in Syria, Moscow's commitment in the conflict simply does not rise to the level of Tehran's. Through its intervention in Syria, Russia is trying to boost its position in the Middle East, demonstrate its global stature, curtail the extremist threat and attain leverage in negotiations with the West. Iran, on the other hand, views the Syrian civil war as a critical front in an existential battle that directly relates to its geopolitical security.

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Update: Russia’s play in Syria will give it access to a warm water port (Francis Matthew, Gulf Times)

WNU Editor: Russia always wanted a secure Mediterranean seaport and a close ally in the Middle East .... which they now have in Assad's Syria. Russia is also not into nation building .... so Syria should not expect aid and funds from Russia to rebuild the country when the war is finally over. But this is a war that is going to grind on for a few more years .... and there is no stomach in Russia for that type of involvement. What I do expect in the coming year is a continuing Russian presence and involvement in the war .... using their air force and special forces to win territory so that in the end most of the Syrian rebel groups will sue for peace. They will also build-up the Syrian Army by providing training and arms .... to counter the ground contribution from Iran via through its militias. That is the Russian exit strategy .... secure much of the country, develop a formidable Syrian Army backed by Russia air-power .... so that in the end Syrian President Assad will be in a good position to negotiate with rebel groups who want peace. In return .... Russia will get its naval base and military airfield in Syria for the next few decades.