Who Will Test President Trump First?

A pedestrian walks past the store 'Army of Russia', located opposite the U.S. embassy, with an image of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump seen on the advertising board, in Moscow, Russia, January 20, 2017. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

Steven Metz, WPR: Which of America’s Adversaries Will Test Trump First?

America’s adversaries are almost certain to challenge U.S. President Donald Trump early on, testing his inexperience in national security affairs and his propensity to personalize political interactions. How he and his team respond will show the mettle of the new administration and determine whether other adversaries mount challenges of their own. What is not clear, though, is which of America’s adversaries will move first.

Russia, which appears to have launched a multidimensional assault to weaken Western democracies, seems the least likely to challenge the new administration. Indications are that Trump will get along well with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has shown little concern for Russia’s cyberattacks, intervention in the U.S. electoral process, and aggression against neighboring states. Hence Putin would gain little from openly testing the Trump administration, at least in the short run.

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WNU Editor: Russia wants better relations with the U.S. to stop the build-up to Cold War II, and to eliminate current sanctions .... so no test from them. China has traditionally been the first country to test an incoming U.S. President .... but they do not want to give an excuse to President Trump to start a trade war and/or trade restrictions .... so they will stay quiet. My money is on either North Korea (testing a nuclear device or launching a missile), or Iran (naval confrontation in the Persian Gulf).

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