On April 21, 2017, at 15:00 UTC, it was as hot as 46.6°C/115.8°F in Guinea, in West-Africa (at the location marked by the green spot on the map below).
That same time and day, a little bit to the south, at a spot in Sierra Leona, a level of carbon monoxide (CO) of 15.28 parts per million (ppm) was recorded, while the temperature there was 40.6°C or 105.1°F. Earlier that day (at 13:30 UTC), levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) of 569 ppm and of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) of 149.97 µg/m³ were recorded at that same spot, shown on the bottom left corner of the image below (red marker).
These high emissions are the signature of wildfires, illustrating the threat of what can occur as temperatures keep rising.
Warming oceans
Oceans are hit by high temperatures as well. The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies (from 1981-2011) on April 21, 2017, at selected locations.
Accelerating temperature rises
The image below illustrates the danger of accelerating temperature rises.
Above image uses trendlines based on data dating back to 1880, which becomes less appropriate as feedbacks start to kick in that accelerate such temperature rises. As discussed below, some of these feedbacks could strongly speed up temperature rises.
Less sunlight getting reflected back into space.
As illustrated by the image below, more ocean heat results in less sea ice. This makes that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the oceans.
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| [ Graph by Wipneus ] |
More ocean heat escaping from the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere
As also discussed before, as less heat is mixed down to deeper layers of oceans, more heat accumulates at or just below the surface. Stronger storms increase the possibility that more of this heat gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in sea ice loss, which in turn makes that more heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, while more clouds over the Arctic Ocean make that less heat can get radiated out into space. As the temperature difference between the Arctic Ocean and the Equator decreases, changes are occurring to the Northern Polar Jet Stream that further speed up warming of the Arctic.
More heat remaining in atmosphere due to less ocean mixing
As discussed before, warmer water tends to form a layer at the surface that does not mix well with the water below. This reduces the capability of oceans to take up heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Less take up by oceans of carbon dioxide will result in higher levels in the atmosphere, further speeding up global warming. Additionally, 93.4% of global warming currently goes into oceans. The more heat will remain in the atmosphere, the faster the temperature of the atmosphere will rise. As temperatures rise, more wildfires will erupt, adding further emissions, while heat-induced melting of permafrost will also cause more greenhouse gases to enter the atmosphere.
More seafloor methane entering the atmosphere
Importantly, large parts of the Arctic Ocean are very shallow, making it easy for arrival of more ocean heat to warm up these seas and for heat to destabilize sediments at the seafloor that can contain huge amounts of methane, resulting in eruptions of methane from the seafloor, with much the methane entering the atmosphere without getting decomposed by microbes in the water, since many seas are only shallow, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.
As also discussed before, as less heat is mixed down to deeper layers of oceans, more heat accumulates at or just below the surface. Stronger storms increase the possibility that more of this heat gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in sea ice loss, which in turn makes that more heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, while more clouds over the Arctic Ocean make that less heat can get radiated out into space. As the temperature difference between the Arctic Ocean and the Equator decreases, changes are occurring to the Northern Polar Jet Stream that further speed up warming of the Arctic.
More heat remaining in atmosphere due to less ocean mixing
As discussed before, warmer water tends to form a layer at the surface that does not mix well with the water below. This reduces the capability of oceans to take up heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Less take up by oceans of carbon dioxide will result in higher levels in the atmosphere, further speeding up global warming. Additionally, 93.4% of global warming currently goes into oceans. The more heat will remain in the atmosphere, the faster the temperature of the atmosphere will rise. As temperatures rise, more wildfires will erupt, adding further emissions, while heat-induced melting of permafrost will also cause more greenhouse gases to enter the atmosphere.
More seafloor methane entering the atmosphere
Importantly, large parts of the Arctic Ocean are very shallow, making it easy for arrival of more ocean heat to warm up these seas and for heat to destabilize sediments at the seafloor that can contain huge amounts of methane, resulting in eruptions of methane from the seafloor, with much the methane entering the atmosphere without getting decomposed by microbes in the water, since many seas are only shallow, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.
How fast could temperatures rise?
When taking into account the many elements that are contributing to warming, a potential warming of 10°C (18°F) could take place, leading to rapid mass extinction of many species, including humans.
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| [ Graph from: Which Trend is Best? ] |
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Links
• Climate Plan
http://ift.tt/2hoyCKz
• Extinction
http://ift.tt/2hoBTcK
• How much warming have humans caused?
http://ift.tt/2o03qEF
• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
http://ift.tt/2pxssul
• Arctic Sea Ice Getting Terribly Thin
http://ift.tt/1cA1Vmq
• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
http://ift.tt/2o00Rm2
• Which Trend is Best?
http://ift.tt/2nPF3bn
• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://ift.tt/2oDPxix
• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
http://ift.tt/2o00Rm2
• Which Trend is Best?
http://ift.tt/2nPF3bn
• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://ift.tt/2oDPxix
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