Men are detained by the Syrian Democratic Forces after coming out from last Islamic State pocket, near the village of Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province, March 1. REUTERS/Rodi Said
Military Times: Low aim or intel failure? ISIS’ last stand shows the difficulty in estimating enemy manpower
It has been difficult to find a credible number for the Islamic State group’s total troop strength ever since it emerged, and speculation has ranged widely.
The CIA estimated in September 2014 that ISIS could muster up to 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria.
Either that estimate was really low or the network of fighters grew considerably because the estimated enemy killed-in-action far out-paced ISIS’ total strength over the next three years.
During that time frame, the U.S.-led Inherent Resolve coalition killed “60,000 to 70,000″ ISIS followers, Gen. Raymond Thomas, who helms U.S. Special Operations Command, said in July 2017.
But by July 2018, Inherent Resolve said it estimated “ISIS manpower” at once again between 28,600 and 31,600 in Iraq and Syria.
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WNU Editor: I have been following this conflict since the beginning, and even I was surprised by the large number of civilians and fighters that streamed out of the eastern Syrian town of Baghouz at the end. As to the question .... was this an intelligence failure? The answer is .... definitely.
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