Temperatures threaten to become unbearable

Many people could face unbearable temperatures soon.

Temperature anomalies on land in the Northern Hemisphere (red) are spread out much wider and they are more than 0.5°C higher than global land+ocean anomalies (blue).

The pale green and grey trends are both long-term trends based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The short-term red and blue trends, based on January 2013-August 2020 NOAA data, are added to show the potential rise due to El Niño, changes in aerosols and feedbacks kicking in more strongly as tipping points get crossed.

The image below, updated from an earlier post, shows two such tipping points.

The August 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.13°C above the 20th century average. The image shows a trend based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to be 1°C above the 20th century average. Crossing the latent heat tipping point threatens to cause the methane hydrates tipping point to be crossed, estimated to be 1.35°C above the 20th century average.

Keep in mind that above images show temperature anomalies from the 20th century average. As an earlier post points out, when using a 1750 baseline and when using ocean air temperatures and higher Arctic anomalies, we may already have crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged would not get crossed.

Also keep in mind that there are further tipping points. As discussed in an earlier post, at least ten tipping points apply to the Arctic.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

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