Just days ahead of November 3, the @FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Joe Biden with a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College.@NateSilver538 breaks down the forecast: https://t.co/5MmblAJP8o pic.twitter.com/wrDdKLFdA6
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 1, 2020
Last week, pollster Nate Silver was so confident in a Biden win that he suggested the only way Trump is reelected would be through a 'major polling error' or cheating.
This weekend, however, Silver shoehorned a giant caveat into weeks of confidently proclaiming a Biden win: Pennsylvania.
"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points," Silver told ABC's "This Week" (sporting a new 'battle beard') adding that if Trump were to win, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."
Silver then sets the expectation for an unfair vote, saying "Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There's lots of stuff going on."
And then, Silver says that if Biden doesn't win PA, he'll become the underdog.
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WNU Editor: The graph above is why pollster Nate Silver is hedging his bets because of Pennsylvania. And he has cause. President Trump's rallies in Pennsylvania today were massive (see below).
Massive crowd here in Butler, Pa. with 72 hours to go until Election Day. pic.twitter.com/QOyLpw7hak
— Gabby Orr (@GabbyOrr_) October 31, 2020
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