Russia's invasion of Ukraine has not gone remotely like Vladimir Putin and his military leaders would have expected back in February.(Kremlin via Reuters: Alexei Druzhinin)
ABC News Australia: Russia's strategy in Ukraine will evolve over winter and into 2023 as Putin hopes to influence the West's response
Russia's strategy for its invasion and subjugation of Ukraine has been evolving constantly. The invasion has not gone remotely like Putin and his military leaders would have expected back in February. They have had to continuously change their "theory of victory".
With winter closing in on Europe, Russia is seeking to hold as much territory as possible while preparing for next year's campaign. What might Russia's options be for 2023, and what are the Russian vulnerabilities Ukraine might attack?
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WNU Editor: This is going to be a long war that will go into 2024. Russian Commander General Sergei Surovikin himself has said that his focus will be to grind the Ukraine army in a war war attrition, while also acknowleding that this is going to take a long time. And facts on the ground in both Russia and Ukraine are indicating that this is what is going to happen.
Russia's war industry is now geared up to fight a long war, and everyone I know in Russia is expecting another massive call-up of reserves in the new year. Russian media itself is prepping the population that this is going to be a long conflict, even though everyone I know in Russia has already accepted that this war is going to be a long one.
I am also one of those who believes this is going to be a long war. And as bad as 2022 has been for Ukraine, I expect 2023 will be worse.
Russia will no longer restrain itself from destroying civilian infrastructure, and it will target the country's economy, or what is left of it. That is why I will not be surprised if all the bridges that cross the Dnieper river will be destroyed soon. And as for Ukraine's electrical grid. By the end of the year much of that will be gone.
This is a major shift for Putin. He has made many decisions during the course of this war that has infuriated the hardliners in Moscow. His reluctance to bomb infrastructure critical to the Ukraine military for the first 7 months of the war. Ignoring the pleas of military commanders in June to call-up reserves. Underestimating the reaction from NATO, and how it is now the main driver of Ukraine war policy and operations.
All of these decisions have been very costly for Russia, and it looks like Putin now realizes that. This is no longer a "special operations". It is now a war.
It was also very telling last week when all of the hardliners who have been condemning Putin for his war strategy and decisions changed to one of praise and support. This is a signal to me that Putin is now accepting the advice of these hardliners, and he will be implementing their recommendations.
In many ways this is not a good sign. Even with the defeat and withdrawal from Kherson hanging in the air, this is the first time that I am seeing unity in the Kremlin on Putin's Ukraine war strategy. All the hardliners and Putin's critics are now on board.
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