Does The Islamic State Have A Plan 'B'?

Photo Credit: Anadolu/Contributor

Brian Michale Jenkins and Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Policy: In the Event of the Islamic State’s Untimely Demise…

Even a caliphate needs a Plan B. Here's what Baghdadi's might look like.

The power of the Islamic State is waning. With its loss of Ramadi and Palmyra over the past several months, and the steady advance of U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria and Iraq, the group is shedding territory. It is also losing recruits to casualties and desertions, as its finances are being squeezed by coalition strikes on bulk cash storage sites and oil refineries. Meanwhile, the coalition campaign to eliminate high-value battlefield targets is succeeding.

Yet, defeat does not appear imminent. The Islamic State still controls key territory, including Raqqa, the capital of its caliphate; the Iraqi city of Mosul and large swaths of territory in the surrounding Nineveh province; and hardscrabble Sunni enclaves in Anbar province, such as Fallujah, Hit, and Haditha. Furthermore, though the coalition has deprived the Islamic State of hundreds of millions of dollars, it is likely to find new, creative ways to replenish its diminishing war chest.

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WNU Editor: Facing defeat my prediction is that they will go underground where they will then position themselves to sustain an insurgency that can last for years. The IRA in Ireland comes to mind.