Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: Out Tricky Peace
The Trump administration's willingness to take on Iran, China and Russia -- in the economic and diplomatic sphere at least -- raises the question of whether even low-intensity conflict can eventually lead to a crisis. The apparent abolition of war in our globalized world has been replaced by what Austin Bay called in his book Cocktails from Hell "a hazardous form of peace". The danger is that such conflicts may boil over. The first flashpoint may be Iran.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down a U.S. drone Thursday amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over the collapsing nuclear deal with world powers ...
Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon that Iranian reports that the drone was shot down over Iran “are categorically false.” He said the drone was flying in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman near the area of the recent tanker attacks when it was shot down. He claimed the Guard fired a surface-to-air missile at the drone from a location near Goruk, Iran.
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WNU Editor: Richard Fernandez is correct in his assessment that Iran is slowly being strangled in the low-intensity conflict with the U.S.. With oil exports now at around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Iranian government's main source of income has dried up. They can't win unless they try something new. But the problem for Iran is that their options are limited, and time is against them. Closing oil traffic will hurt U.S. allies in Asia, but it will have devastating consequences on our rival, China. Will Iran be willing to risk their friendship with China .... their number one customer? As I said, Iran's options are limited, and provoking a war with the U.S. will not earn them any friends.
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