Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, December 7, 2019. Reuters
Business Insider/Washington Examiner: Western allies are worried Russia could take over a neighbor to keep Putin alive and in power
* Russia's neighbors are worried that Moscow could annex Belarus in an effort to keep President Vladimir Putin in power.
* Such a move would allow Putin to circumvent term limits, and put Russian forces within striking distance of a major NATO weak point.
Western allies fear that Russia will gain sovereignty over Belarus, a former Soviet satellite state that could help preserve Vladimir Putin's grip on power and sharpen Kremlin threats against NATO members.
Russian expansion is on the table because Putin is trying to finalize the implementation of a union treaty that the two countries signed in 1998. Moscow and Minsk interpret the agreement differently, but Putin has begun to apply economic pressure to Belarus while scheduling a flurry of meetings with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko over the last year.
"I think this mild annexation will just happen, probably next year," Alisa Muzergues, a foreign policy analyst at GLOBSEC in the Slovak Republic, told the Washington Examiner. "To be honest, my personal feeling is that it's already a done deal."
Such a maneuver could end Lukashenko's tenure as "the last dictator in Europe," while providing Putin with a political life-preserver. Currently, presidential term limit laws require him to leave the Kremlin in 2024. A union with Belarus would allow him to circumvent those limits and continue to rule the revised Russian state, pending a new election he is expected to win.
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WNU Editor: This talk of a Russian - Belarusian unification has been intensifying for the past year (see below):
Is Russia And Belarus Discussing Unification? (February 14, 2019)
Is Russia Plotting to Take Over Belarus? (April 24, 2019)
I have friends in Minsk who work in the government, and I have also recently noticed a shift in mood among them on the topic of annexation. In the past they were against it, today they are for it. I personally would be surprised if annexation does occur. It is true that three quarters of the country speak Russian at home, but while the language is the same as Russia's, the culture is not. The Belarusians also like their independence, even though joining Russia would bring enormous economic benefits. I also know that the Kremlin wants this to happen. They see many upsides to it beyond the political ones. But in the end it will be Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's decision to make. He is an authoritarian who likes to be President, but he is also getting old, and the Kremlin is putting the economic squeeze on him. A squeeze that is only going to intensify in the next year or two.
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