It is evident that China will not have, as analysts had once predicted, a V-shaped recovery. An L-shaped one—a long-drawn-out climb out of a hole—is more like it. And that spells trouble for Xi Jinping.
i Jinping, during his appearance at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing on Saturday, talked about analyzing the Chinese economy from a “dialectical and long-term perspective.”
Should we be surprised that the Chinese leader is resorting to ideological circumlocutions when his economy is contracting and he knows he can’t rescue it soon?
The official National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product contracted 6.8 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of this year, the first announced decline since Beijing began issuing quarterly GDP statistics in 1992. Many assessments, including the widely followed China Beige Book, pegged the contraction at about 10 percent.
There has been a recovery this quarter, but it is hard to figure out the extent of the upturn. “It’s the worst information flow in my experience, which means since the 1980s,” Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research told me.
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WNU Editor: Gordon Chang has been predicting doom and gloom for the Chinese economy for years. But he may be right this time.
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