Washington Post: The Ukraine conflict has Persian Gulf monarchies hedging their bets
When the United Arab Emirates abstained from the Feb. 25 U.N. Security Council vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was much consternation, as many observers expected the United States’ partners in the Middle East to unequivocally side with Washington and Europe.
Why did one of the United States’ closest partners in the Middle East decline to vote against Russia? The UAE was probably hedging its bets, a path that seems popular elsewhere in the region, too.
Hedging to the extreme
Russia is not a strategic partner for the Persian Gulf monarchies. Given its production capabilities, Russia has become an important interlocutor for Saudi Arabia in the OPEC-plus oil bloc that controls close to 40 percent of global production, but Moscow also competes with gulf countries as an energy producer.
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WNU Editor: There are two reasons why countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Israel are being careful on how they approach the Russia - Ukraine war, and more specifically, to not alienate Russia.
One .... they do not trust the Biden administration. Israel because of the U.S. push for an Iran nuclear deal, and Saudi Arabia/UAE because of the Yemen war and the Iran nuclear deal. Relations between the Gulf monarchies and the U.S. are at the lowest that I have ever seen, and Israel is definitely not happy with the concessions that the White House is making with Iran.
Two .... I believe these countries have made the calculation that Russia will win the war and/or achieve most if not all of their objectives in this conflict. If that does happen, you do not want to be seen as a foe of the Kremlin, and what better way to have leverage with Moscow than telling them that they did not actively oppose their invasion when forced to do so by the U.S. and others.
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