Pentagon Estimates 2,000 To 4,000 Russian Troops Killed In Ukraine War

Axios: U.S. estimates 2,000 to 4,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine war

The U.S. assesses with "low confidence" that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have been killed over the course of Vladimir Putin's 12-day war in Ukraine, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier testified Tuesday.

Why it matters: The estimated number of casualties is "far in excess" of what Russia anticipated or has publicly acknowledged, according to U.S. intelligence officials. Putin has still not achieved his initial goal — seizing Kyiv within two days — and may turn to more brutal tactics in the coming days and weeks.

The big picture: Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified at Congress' annual worldwide threats hearing that Russia "underestimated the strength of Ukraine's resistance and the degree of internal military challenges," which include "an ill-constructed plan" and issues with morale and logistics.

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WNU Editor: It is hard to calculate how many Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the Ukraine invasion. I try to get some measure of it from Russian social media and open sources, and I am the first to admit that it is impossible to make any estimate.

As for U.S. intelligence estimating between 2,000 to 4,000 soldiers killed. These officials are saying the same thing that I am saying .... it is based on data that they have "low confidence" in.

But there is a reference point that can be used to make an estimate, and that is the first and second Chechen wars where estimates are that Russian casualties were between 20,000 to 40,000 killed (Causalities first Chechen war, Second Chechen war).

Both Chechen wars were unbelievably brutal and scorch earth, and took years to resolve. If this is where the Russia - Ukraine war is headed, I can easily Russian casualties at almost 100,000 killed, but the casualty count on the Ukrainian side, especially among the civilian population, will be in the hundreds of thousands killed (if not more) and half of the country displaced both internally and externally.

One other note. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that approximately 5% of Russia's weapons and vehicles have been destroyed or "rendered inoperable" during the war. After almost two weeks of intense war I find that number to be surprisingly small, and what is more sobering is that this equipment has probably already been replaced. With the number of anti-tank/armor weapons that the Ukrainian military has, I expected a much higher number.

Pentagon Estimates 2,000 To 4,000 Russian Troops Killed In Ukraine War

Pentagon Estimates Thousands of Russian Troops Have Been Killed in Ukraine -- Military.com

Pentagon estimates 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine -- France 24

U.S. Military Intelligence Estimates Russian Troop Deaths Reach 4,000 -- Newsweek

Estimates Vary on Russian Troop Deaths in Ukraine Since Invasion -- US News and World Report