Grigory SYSOYEV / SPUTNIK / AFP
Daily Beast: Putin Bailed on Top Military Meetings After Crushing War Losses
After Russian forces in Ukraine suffered a series of crushing defeats over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin went into retreat himself.
The Russian president postponed a planned meeting with his top military brass and representatives of the defense industry in Sochi, in a sign that Putin is caught in the lurch after Ukrainian forces reclaimed a lot of territory that Russian armed forces had seized earlier in the war, according to TASS. It is thought to be the largest Russian defeat since the beginning of the war.
“The Sochi meetings are in demand, they will continue,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, indicating that the meeting was just being postponed, not canceled.
Peskov said Putin had pushed off the meeting with Russian defense leadership and defense industry representatives, which is usually held in May, due to a “very, very busy” schedule.
But he also suggested that Putin needed time to digest the new developments in the war, alluding to the losses.
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WNU Editor: Putin's cancellation of this important defense/national security meeting tells me that he is now re-evaluating the war. Today's deliberate attack on Ukraine's civilian power grid also tells me that the rules of engagement for Russian forces in Ukraine are now changing.
So what is next?
During this summer my gut told me that Putin had resign himself that this war would go into next year, and his hope was that a rough winter would force Europe to put pressure on Ukraine President Zelensky to negotiate with Putin to put an end to the war. I think the Zelensky government realized that, and with the support of the U.S. and other allies made the decision to "go for broke" .... Ukraine President Zelenski Is Going For Broke (September 5, 2022). The Kherson counter-offensive was a disaster, but the Kharkiv offensive, with half of the manpower that was deployed against Kherson, has changed the trajectory of the war in Ukraine's favour. Or at least that is the perception that many in the West are giving.
I have a different take.
If Putin had any thoughts (or hope?) that this war could end with a negotiated settlement even when Zelensky has said repeatedly that he would never give up Ukrainian territory including Crimea is a strategy that I believe Putin has now abandoned. And what I fear the most is going to happen next .... Putin giving in to the hardliners to fully commit all of Russia's resources to the war in Ukraine.
Is a general Russian mobilization about to declare? I do not know.
But after listening today to all of my family/friends/and contacts in Russia, I am now getting the sense that the war is going to be entering a different and far more brutal phase. That critical civilian infrastructure .... electrical/transport/and communications .... are to be targeted with the intended goal of completely crippling Ukraine. I also expect a massive increase in the deployment of Russian forces to Ukraine in the coming weeks and months.
And as for what the Russian public wants.
After this week's Kharkiv debacle the vast majority now want to escalate the war. I have never seen or experienced this Russian sentiment, and it is disturbing. The closest that I have seen something like this was on 9/11, when the American public was overwhelmingly in favour of bringing war to Al Aaeda and their Taliban allies in Afghanistan. I also saw this among my Ukraine friends and some of my family members when Russia invaded in February. An anger and unity to do what is necessary to win.
When nations go down this road it is always a sure thing that there will be widespread destruction and death, and it looks like that tipping point has now passed for most Russians.
One more thing to watch for this week. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are meeting (September 15 - 16) on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan. Both leaders view the other as their most important international ally, and I am willing to bet that Putin is going to brief Xi on what Russia is going to do next in the Ukraine war.
What happens after the summit is over is going to be interesting. I am going to be watching Xi and his top officials like a hawk. What they do and say will be an indication on how far Putin is going to go in Ukraine.
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