Switzerland's national flag flies under the logo of Swiss bank UBS in Zurich, Switzerland April 24, 2017. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann
Bloomberg: UBS Wealth Stands Pat on 20% Chance of North Korea War
* Kelvin Tay says company is sticking to China, Indonesia bets
* If war does break out, Malaysia stocks may outperform, he says
UBS Group AG’s wealth management unit got its in-house risk analysts to help gauge the threat of war on the Korean peninsula, mapped out the impact on its investments, and then decided to do nothing.
Even as North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations said a nuclear war “may break out any moment,” the money manager dismissed it as “saber rattling, drum beating.”
“It’s just two dogs barking at each other,” said Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore, referring to the escalating rhetoric between North Korea’s leader and U.S. President Donald Trump. “Do you seriously think Kim Jong Un is going to fire a missile” at one of his enemies?
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WNU Editor: UBS Wealth Management oversees 2.2 trillion Swiss francs ($2.2 trillion). In short .... they are in the business of protecting and making money for their clients. I also read their stuff (i.e. UBS Group and others) all the time .... that is why I know that the above Bloomberg article is correct .... that when it comes to assessing the risks in potential wars, large financial institutions like UBS Group have no clue on what they are doing. C'mon .... how did they reach their 20% figure. What scale, data, and measurement did they use to assess such a risk? For an institution that handles trillions .... they seem to be whistling in the dark when it comes to assessing how potential wars may impact their clients. And that is the ugly truth .... no one can accurately assess what is the risk of war with a country like North Korea. That includes trillion dollar financial institutions, the Pentagon/White House, the defense and intelligence ministries in China, Japan, South Korea, etc.. No one really knows. As to what is my prediction for war with North Korea .... what makes me unique is that (to me) such scenarios are either 0% or 100% .... and in this case it is at 0%.
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