Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically
* 50% or higher approval makes president safe bet for reelection
* The two presidents with approval ratings below 40% lost
* Approval ratings have not changed much between June and Election Day
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's prospects of winning a second term in office will be closely tied to the level of his job approval rating. Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.
George W. Bush is the only recent president who had an approval rating above 40% but lower than 50% at the time of the election -- the same range where Trump is now. Bush won a second term in 2004 when his approval rating was 48% in the final Gallup poll taken before the election. However, he did register multiple approval ratings of 50% or higher in the weeks leading up to the election, a level Trump has yet to reach in his presidency.
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Update: Gallup: Historically, Incumbent With 50% or More Job Approval Gets Reelected -- Trump Now 49% (CNS News)
WNU Editor: President Trump polled 49% last month, 3% better than President Obama at the same time in his Presidency .... Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump (Gallup). Will the recent unrest in the U.S. hurt his numbers? I doubt it. Past polls have also always under-reported President Trump's polling numbers. I am willing to bet that this 49% is the low number, with many Trump supporters not willing to admit to pollsters that they support the President. The election is still five months away, so anything is possible. But historically speaking, if these poll numbers are correct, President Trump is well positioned to win a second term.
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