Atlantic Council: Will Russia make a military move against Ukraine? Follow these clues.
For weeks, the eyes of the world have been on a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine, as Western officials struggle to decipher Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent: beef up his attack on Ukrainian sovereignty, or bluff his way to key concessions?
Amid a flurry of diplomatic talks, fiery rhetoric, and movements of heavy materiel, we wanted to separate the signal from the noise. So we reached out to our military fellows at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, who are active-duty officers with the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, for a sense of what they’re tracking most closely—and what indicators we should all be monitoring to divine Putin’s intentions.
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WNU Editor: The above post says that the Russian army is not going to move into Ukraine during the "muddy" season. I disagree. The muddy fields in the spring thaw are not going to stop Russian armor from moving into Ukraine. The Russian military trains in this type of environment all the time, and they know what needs to be done.
But there is another reason why a Russian invasion will not happen in the next month. The Beijing winter Olympics opens in two weeks, and Russia is not going to do anything that will divert world attention away from these games and China's efforts to showcase its country.
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