Taiwanese F-16 fighter jet in foreground flies on the flank of a Chinese H-6 bomber on Feb. 10: Chinese acts of military intimidation will have to seem bigger and more dangerous. © Taiwan Ministry of National Defense/AP
Minxin Pei, Nikkei Asian Review: China and the US risk accidental war over Taiwan
Need for both sides to show resolve could lead to a conflict nobody really wants
When 18 Chinese warplanes breached Taiwan's air defense identification zone last month, it was a further sign of rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
The latest in a series of large-scale military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan, official Chinese media warned the self-governing island's leaders -- and the U.S., which has stepped up its military and diplomatic support for Taipei -- of dire consequences if unspecified Chinese red lines are crossed.
All of which has raised fears that China is preparing to launch a military assault on Taiwan.
While no one should dismiss Chinese military threats and activities as mere posturing, a careful examination of Beijing's strategic calculations brings a clearer understanding of the real dynamics driving its intentions toward Taiwan.
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WNU Editor: Minxin Pei believes China does not favor using the military option to assert its claims over Taiwan. That this is just a bluff on the part of China to warn Taiwan and the US to keep their military buildup and relations to a minimum. I disagree. I have been a witness to Chinese threats against Taiwan for the past 35 years. In the past it was all talk with the little to show on the ground that China was prepared to invade Taiwan. No more now. The military assets are in place. The political/military indoctrination has shifted in the past few years that now openly advocates the seizure of Taiwan. President Xi himself has said on more than one occasion that the country must be prepared to go to war. These are unprecedented measures taken by a country that is not hiding its intentions or goals. Minxin Pei talks about how China and the US risk accidental war over Taiwan. Sorry Minxin Pei .... accidental wars do not happen. Wars happen because leaders want it. If there is a war between the US and China over Taiwan, it is because China decided to start it.
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